Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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DVOA Playoff Odds Report

Revised as of 11/19/08, through Week 11

Compiled by Mike Harris

Philadelphia and Cincinnati now fixed.

The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

AFC East

TeamRecWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NYJ7-310.0%10.52.9%20.1%36.2%9.1%6.8%6.7%68.3%23.0%13.5%81.7%16.7%
MIA6-46.6%9.40.1%5.0%16.7%2.5%8.9%12.0%24.3%5.0%20.8%45.1%-2.3%
NE6-4-3.6%8.70.0%2.2%3.3%0.7%6.4%7.1%6.2%2.3%13.4%19.7%-12.5%
BUF5-5-12.4%7.60.0%0.1%0.8%0.3%1.1%1.9%1.2%0.1%3.0%4.3%-8.6%

AFC North

TeamRecWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
PIT7-320.3%10.85.2%47.1%19.6%2.0%8.0%10.0%73.9%52.3%18.0%91.9%4.9%
BAL6-423.0%9.90.1%16.0%9.1%0.8%22.4%26.8%26.0%16.1%49.2%75.2%-5.7%
CLE4-6-4.5%6.60.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.2%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.8%0.9%0.6%
CIN1-9-1-28.2%3.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

AFC South

TeamRecWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
TEN10-030.4%13.991.1%6.6%1.4%0.0%0.6%0.2%99.2%97.7%0.8%100.0%0.2%
IND6-415.7%9.90.5%0.2%0.1%0.0%45.1%33.0%0.8%0.8%78.1%78.9%9.6%
JAC4-6-4.0%6.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.7%0.0%0.0%1.0%1.0%-1.8%
HOU3-7-12.5%5.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.1%

AFC West

TeamRecWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
DEN6-4-1.3%9.30.0%2.7%12.3%70.2%0.1%0.2%85.2%2.7%0.2%85.4%26.8%
SD4-6-6.4%7.00.0%0.0%0.4%14.2%0.1%1.0%14.6%0.0%1.1%15.8%-25.9%
OAK2-8-31.5%4.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.1%-0.5%
KC1-9-33.0%3.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.4%

NFC East

TeamRecWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NYG9-141.9%12.869.3%19.5%8.1%0.5%1.1%1.0%97.4%88.8%2.0%99.4%2.4%
WAS6-48.0%8.90.3%0.3%0.3%0.1%11.1%20.0%1.0%0.6%31.1%32.1%-23.0%
PHI5-4-124.3%8.90.3%0.5%0.5%0.1%10.4%17.6%1.3%0.7%28.0%29.2%-5.6%
DAL6-4-9.5%8.30.0%0.1%0.2%0.0%3.9%9.0%0.3%0.1%13.0%13.3%10.8%

NFC North

TeamRecWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
GB5-523.5%9.00.0%1.1%9.0%55.2%0.4%1.4%65.3%1.1%1.8%67.1%29.4%
CHI5-5-0.3%8.00.0%0.2%3.0%20.7%0.4%1.2%23.8%0.2%1.6%25.4%-21.7%
MIN5-5-3.9%7.60.0%0.1%2.0%8.7%0.4%2.3%10.9%0.1%2.7%13.6%-7.6%
DET0-10-43.7%1.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

NFC South

TeamRecWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
TB7-317.4%10.85.3%24.3%15.6%0.3%26.8%12.7%45.6%29.6%39.5%85.0%20.4%
CAR8-218.2%11.012.4%23.4%6.4%1.4%29.2%11.2%43.5%35.8%40.4%83.8%6.3%
ATL6-46.5%9.40.2%4.0%4.6%0.4%13.9%19.0%9.2%4.2%32.9%42.1%-17.6%
NO5-55.2%7.90.0%0.2%1.3%0.2%2.6%4.7%1.8%0.2%7.3%9.0%6.6%

NFC West

TeamRecWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
ARI7-321.3%11.012.2%26.3%48.9%12.6%0.0%0.0%100.0%38.5%0.0%100.0%0.5%
STL2-8-45.0%4.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
SEA2-8-18.2%4.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.4%
SF3-7-13.1%5.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team
  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win16-015-1
NYG66.3%42.0%25.0%6.6%
TEN67.5%42.8%21.9%7.7%25.1%
ARI43.1%20.8%11.1%
PIT46.6%21.8%10.2%
CAR35.0%15.3%7.4%
TB32.4%13.3%6.6%
BAL24.2%11.2%5.3%
NYJ27.4%11.2%4.0%
IND15.4%6.4%2.5%
MIA10.6%3.9%1.4%
PHI4.4%2.0%1.1%
ATL7.6%2.6%1.1%
GB4.2%1.8%0.9%
WAS3.7%1.3%0.6%
DEN4.4%1.5%0.4%
NE3.4%1.1%0.4%
NO1.2%0.4%0.2%
CHI1.0%0.3%0.1%
DAL0.6%0.2%0.0%
MIN0.6%0.2%0.0%
BUF0.3%0.0%0.0%
SD0.1%0.0%0.0%
CLE0.1%0.0%0.0%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2008 NFL Draft.

Team#1 PickTop 3 Pick0-161-15
DET 72.1%95.4%9.9%31.3%
CIN 8.6%58.2%
KC 11.8%56.8%4.1%
SEA 2.8%26.1%
STL 2.1%25.6%
OAK 2.2%25.4%
HOU 0.2%5.9%
SF 0.1%5.8%
CLE 0.0%0.4%
JAC 0.0%0.3%
SD 0.0%0.2%